Riding through the storms

The war in the Middle East has now entered its fourth week. Like life itself, it has its ebbs and flows. For those of us outside the conflict zone, the impact is felt through higher oil, food, and flight prices—and a general sense of unease. For those living in the region, the cost is far greater: lives lost, fear endured, and trauma carried. War is always destructive.

Over the weekend, President Trump claimed that talks with Iran were underway. Iran quickly denied this. Headlines like these swing sentiment back and forth, making short‑term market direction almost impossible to predict. For investors, it’s a reminder of how fragile markets can be—and why chasing news or hype often leads to disappointment.

Gold offers a striking example.

Gold’s Rollercoaster Ride

This year began with excitement: prices surged nearly 30% in January, only to slip about 5% in February. When the war broke out, many expected gold to shine as the ultimate safe haven. And for a moment, it did—jumping about 2% in a single day. But within weeks, it lost nearly 20%, erasing much of its earlier gains. Today, gold is trading close to where it started the year.

Edited on 26 Mar: I considered this a valuable case study to illustrate how unpredictable things can be. I initially wrote this article on 23 Mar. Today is 26 Mar. In the two days since then, Gold has surged significantly, rising by 3-4%. Describing it as a rollercoaster might be an understatement.

For those who bought into the hype, the result could be losses of nearly one‑fifth of their portfolio. This is the danger of concentrated positions—especially in speculative assets. While jewellery demand accounts for a sizeable share of gold consumption, nearly half of the market is driven by speculation or hedging. Its value is largely perceived, not productive.

(This article is not a suggestion to purchase or sell any asset, including gold. Please conduct your own research and assess the risks before making any decisions)

Why We Don’t Chase Hype

Our philosophy is clear: we don’t chase hype, trends, or “sexy” tools. We build portfolios designed to increase the probability of steady returns, guided by data and discipline. That means accepting that we won’t capture every rally—but it also means avoiding the kind of sharp losses that speculation can bring.

We are not here to capture all the gains in the market. We are here to increase our chances of reaching our destination—through storms, volatility, and uncertainty. Yes, we might lose some yields along the way. But the flip side is that we won’t face devastating losses.

Staying the Course

The lesson from gold’s recent swings is clear: speculation can be exciting, but it can easily be derailed. True investing is about patience, discipline, and resilience, and buying into productive assets, nor perceived valuations. It is more than just choosing the right asset class. It is about setting up your personal finances to support your investment journey.

I’ve written more about this philosophy here: Investment Philosophy 101 – What investment means to me.

I write on topics related to financial habits and decisions. Do explore my other articles at https://www.williamseah.com/blog if the ideas intrigue you. Drop me an email at reach.william@gmail.com or text me at 9673 1523 if you’d like to chat over coffee or whisky.